I guess this is a follow-up to my post regarding the downtrend in AdSense earnings I first noticed in October last year after Sabahan.com’s PageRank was dropped from PR5 to a PR3.

This time around, at least at the time of this writing, my AdSense earnings appear to bounce back up a bit. It’s still early to conclude that the end to the downtrend that I’ve been experiencing for the past couple of months is near.

Let’s see how the trend looks like. To avoid violating AdSense’s TOS, I have to erase some of the x-axis values in the graphs below.

Note that the data for January does not include the last 5 days of the month. As it turns out, all but the eCPM value shows an upward trend. I believe the final eCPM value will follow this trend once the data for the entire month is taken into account.

The reason why I think so is because the increase in the average impressions appears to be complemented by a similar increase in the CTRs. At the moment the rate at which the average impressions is increasing is higher than that of the CTRs which explains the lower eCPM. Make sense?

I know I am making a lot of assumption here but let’s just wait what will happen at the end of this month What’s more important to me is my average daily earnings increases.

While I am aware that my own personal experience may not necessarily represent that of the rest of AdSense publishers, it’s still interesting to know that some other publishers close to home are noticing the same trend. One of them is Mr Rajawang or Rajawang.com.

In his latest post, Rajawang reveals that his daily AdSense earning has set a new personal record when it reaches US90.64/day recently. He adds that if this trend continues, his goal of reaching US1000 a month may just become a reality this month.

His eCPM (effective cpost per thousand impressions) was higher than usually while CTRs appear to remain about the same where it hovers near the 1 percent mark.

While the possible explanations to this seemingly positive development are endless, it probably has more to do with the end and beginning of the year. And while it’s normal that AdSense earnings may fluctuate over time, the fluctuations can become significant when the following factors come into effect.

Many advertisers and CPC managers return to work and begin their advertising campaigns. This affects the AdSense ad inventory and increase advertisers demand which in turn is reflected in the higher eCPM as more ads compete for a spot in your blog. In addition, good advertisers may have started spending money on the AdSense network again and the chance for low quality ads to appear in your blog is lower.

Another important factor that can affect your AdSense earning is a phenomenon called smart pricing. When you are hit by one, one poorly (or nicely in this case) converting site can “smart price” your entire AdSense account.

The main motivation behind this phenomenon is to lower the advertisers cost in order to provide a strong ROI for them. And supposedly, this should lead to higher payouts for publishers by drawing a larger pool of advertisers and reward publishers who create high quality sites.

Also, it’s possible that after the recent Google’s PageRank smack, many bloggers have decided to call it quits. They put their blogs on sale leaving a bigger advertising pie for those who decide to stay put. Perhaps we are just starting to see something positive coming out of the PageRank debacle?

Of course this is just one of my theories, and let’s leave it at that.

On the other hand, while there may be many people who are experiencing an increase in their earnings, there will also be people who experience the opposite. The niche you are in may play a role too.

How’s your January’s AdSense earning so far? It would be interesting to see whether your own experience confirm this upward trend or not.